Iran: Eying Turkey As Key Trade Partner

Iran is considering focusing on Turkey as a trade partner rather than the Persian Gulf Arab states, Iranian Chamber of Commerce President Mohammad Nahvandian said Jan. 30, Fars News Agency reported. Iran would achieve a balance in its trade accounts if it purchased European goods via Turkey rather than the Gulf states, Nahavandian said.

Source: Stratfor

Turkey: Military Purchases From Israel Proceeding

January 30, 2009

Turkey’s plans to buy military equipment from Israel have not been upset by the dust-up at Davos, where Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Jan. 29 accused Israel of acting as a terrorist state in relation to the recent Gaza campaign. Haaretz reported Jan. 30 that Turkey expects to receive its first shipment of armed Harpy attack drones from Israel in February, and would take delivery of Heron drones as well.

Source: Sratfor

Feb. 4: Senior officials from United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, Germany and China will meet in Germany to discuss the conflict with Iran over Tehran’s nuclear program.

George Mitchell's visit postponed

Jan. 31-Feb. 6: Newly appointed U.S. Middle East peace envoy George Mitchell will continue his regional tour to Jordan and Saudi Arabia; his visit to Turkey has been postponed for “technical reasons.”

U.S. ballistic missile defense in Central Europe:

The Czech government has delayed its vote on the Lisbon Treaty, the document that will serve as the European constitution. The publicly admitted reason was simple and true: With the Americans perhaps souring on missile defense installations, the Russians resurging and the Europeans dithering on everything, the Czechs want some clarity from the Americans before they commit to anything like a European constitution. The Czechs need to know where the Americans stand on the issue of protecting Central Europe, because they fear their European partners won’t do anything (and they already know where the Russians stand). This is very direct. Very pragmatic. Very understandable. But this is the kind of thing best kept quiet while the Russians are in the room. The Central Europeans are pondering redefining their relationships with both Washington and Moscow. The new U.S. administration would trigger that regardless, but now the Obama administration has very little time to impress the Central Europeans before they have to start making some very hard decisions.

Russia’s turn in the Great Game:

The Kyrgyz leadership is in Moscow next week to discuss the future of foreign military deployments on its soil, one of which is a U.S. airbase just outside the capital of Bishkek. Russian-American negotiations are proceeding haphazardly on a range of issues. The results of the Russian-Kyrgyz summit will be the best place to watch for guidance next week on how the bigger picture is unfolding.

Turkey’s next moves:

The Turkish prime minister had a bit of an outburst this past week at the Davos forum, attacking Israel for its treatment of the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. Turkey has interests — and a rising profile — in the Balkans, the Caucasus, Iran, the Levant and the broader Mediterranean Basin. It has been a long time since Turkey forcefully expressed its opinions on anything on the international stage. Everything Turkey does in the next few weeks bears close scrutiny. It is one of the few countries in the world with the military, economy and chutzpah to really change its region.